IMF raises growth forecast as China reopens, lower gas prices
Global growth has proven to be “surprisingly resilient”, with most countries avoiding a recession this year, the IMF said, raising its forecast, hailing a possible turnaround for the global economy.
The fund expects the global economy to grow by 3.2% between the end of the last quarter of 2022 and the end of the last quarter of this year, taking into account China’s decision last month to scrap its zero-coronavirus policy. said that .
This represents a significant improvement from 2022, when the IMF estimates global economic growth to be 1.9%. The projected 3.2% growth rate also The IMF’s last forecastin October.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Grinchat said 2023 “could well be a turning point” and said economic conditions would improve in the years to come.
“We are far from any country. [sign of] Global recession,” said Gourinchas, Greetings from Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva The recession will hit more than a third of the global economy this month.
The IMF said the improved outlook was Opening up the Chinese economy Falling energy prices in Europe.
On average, the global economy is projected to be 2.9% larger in 2023 than in 2022. That’s a different metric than comparing this year’s Q4 to last year’s Q4. That’s a step down from his estimated 3.4% pace for 2022.
But the IMF was not as optimistic as investors. With the MSCI World Stock Index up 7% year-to-date and bond markets expecting him to cut rates by 2024, traders are expecting a soft landing and a painless fall in inflation.
The fund Britain will be the only major economy to shrink In 2023, GDP is projected to be 0.5% smaller in the fourth quarter than in the same period in 2022. Even the Russian economy could grow by 1% over the same period, surpassing the UK economy. .
China is expected to grow at 5.9%, more than double the fund’s October forecast. Meanwhile, India is expected to become the world’s fastest growing powerhouse this year, with output in the final quarter of 2023 down a year ago. China and India together account for half of global growth this year, while the United States and the eurozone account for just 10%, he said, the IMF said.
China will become an “engine” that benefits other countries, Grinchas said.
However, the IMF warned that it remains concerned about risks in China’s property sector. Beijing is real estate crisis Since 2021, when developer Evergrande defaulted on its international debt.
By the end of the year, the US economy is expected to be 1% larger than the previous year, unchanged from the October forecast. However, the IMF said his 2022 performance in the country was stronger than expected.
Grinsha said there was a “potential” for avoiding a US recession, but it was a “narrow path” and higher interest rates would “certainly cool the economy and reduce inflation”.
The US Federal Reserve is Expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point This week we have set a target range of 4.5% to 4.75%.
Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, warned that interest rates could rise more than the market expected, especially in the United States, and take longer to fall.
“There’s definitely a wedge between what policymakers are telling and what’s being priced into the market,” he said. “There are still a lot of upside risks to inflation…until it becomes very clear that inflation is sustainingly falling…there is a need to continue to tighten monetary policy,” he said.
The IMF also reiterated concerns about debt defaults in emerging markets, but downplayed the risks of a “systemic debt crisis environment.”
About 60% of low-income countries and some emerging market economies are or are already in crisis, according to the Fund.
asked about Resurrection of bailout talks with PakistanThe IMF, which cut its growth forecast for this year by 2.5 percentage points to 2%, said its mission to Islamabad this week would focus on restoring sustainability at home and abroad.
https://www.ft.com/content/043e6c32-0da4-45ba-8c5c-89f53198d7f1 IMF raises growth forecast as China reopens, lower gas prices