Economic pioneer UPS said a “moderate recession” is the current base case, one of a growing group of companies that management expects to slow in 2023.
“We expect 2023 to be a turbulent year, with rising interest rates, decades of high inflation, projected recessions and wars in Eastern Europe. [Covid-19] There is confusion in labor negotiations between China and the United States,” UPS Chief Financial Officer Brian Newman told analysts on Tuesday.
“We expect a mild recession in the first half of the year and a modest recovery in the second half,” Neumann said.
Investors seem to have heeded the warning, with UPS forecasting lower revenue and operating margins in fiscal 2023 than last year. The company’s stock, which is seen as an indicator of global demand as the company ships a wide range of products around the world, rose 4.5% in afternoon trading.
McDonald’s Chief Executive Chris Kempzynski on Tuesday echoed remarks made three months ago, saying forecasts point to a “mild to moderate recession” in the U.S. and “a little deeper, It will last longer,” he said.
Recession risks are a concern for the US housing industry, with rising interest rates putting pressure on mortgage rates and weakening demand.
“Homebuilders are inherently optimists and I would like to believe that [Federal Reserve] We can adjust for a soft landing, but the risk of a recession is real,” Ryan Marshall, chief executive of homebuilder PulteGroup, told analysts by phone Tuesday.
https://www.ft.com/content/695ee7df-8eee-4122-8cfd-ca572712b4df Live news: Chinese factories slow down as Covid tears through workforce