Personal and national factors collide in fierce Georgia Senate election — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll

Georgia’s Senate elections are rife with personal and partisan conflicts, with candidates having close approval ratings, but the voters’ rationale for supporting each candidate is quite different. Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock has topped the positive ratings and character ratings, while voters for Republican challenger Herschel Walker have their eyes set on Washington and a potential Republican Senate.

Overall, new CBS News Battleground Tracker A poll in Georgia put incumbent Warnock ahead of Walker by just two points.

Warnock is fueled by a reputation for how he treats himself, has the right experience and is a great role model. Few voters see Walker that way — including some of his own — but his supporters cast their votes against President Biden and help the GOP win. I think that senate control.

Most registered voters in Georgia say they like the way Warnock treats himself, and most say he has strong moral character, is a good role model, has the right experience, and is honest. He says he is sincere.

Less than half of Georgia voters say Walker shares these traits, and most dislike the way Walker treats himself, with one in five saying he’s not his own. I am a supporter.

Georgia voters are particularly critical of Walker’s level of experience. Only about a quarter of them, and less than half of Walker’s own voters, think he has the right experience.



Walker supporters say they aren’t voting for him primarily because they like Walker. Instead, most say they are voting for him because they are against Warnock or because Walker is the Republican nominee.


Warnock has received positive approval ratings from voters in Georgia. While most Georgia voters disapprove of the work Joe Biden is doing, his disappointment with the incumbent president doesn’t seem to be reflected negatively on Warnock. This may be because less than half of Georgia voters say Warnock agrees too much with Biden on the issue.


But among Walker’s supporters, there is national interest. Most see their vote as against Joe Biden. Senate control looms large on either side, but this is especially true for Walker voters.



The lure of Republicans in the majority may undermine the fact that Walker supporters are less enthusiastic about the candidate than Warnock supporters. I wish I had. But despite these concerns, nine of his 10 of Walker’s supporters said they would not consider voting for Warnock.

Just like the coalition that gave the Democrats a statewide win here in 2020, Warnock is leading across women, voters under 45, black voters, both liberals and moderates.

In this highly polarized race, Walker also enjoys overwhelming support from members of his own party (although not as strongly as Democrat Warnock). He also has a slight lead among older voters (both white men and white women), conservatives, and independents.

Warnock has the support of 9 in 10 black voters, with 8 in 10 black voters saying race will play a very important role in this year’s vote.

Most black voters support policies that help blacks, and Warnock comes close to sharing his views on race in America.

Most black voters in Georgia have a negative view of race relations in the state, and nearly all say racism is a major problem in America, both past and present. increase.



As in the rest of the country, the economy and inflation are top priorities for voters in Georgia, and these are issues that favor Republicans. Most voters who say the economy and inflation are very important issues are voting for Walker, as are most voters who say rising prices are a financial hardship for them.


Meanwhile, the abortion issue is motivating Democrats, who put it at the top of their list in terms of importance, which helps Warnock. Most believe that abortion should be legal, and most want elected officials to protect access to it. An overwhelming majority of Georgia voters think Warnock will protect abortion access and Walker will limit it.

Those who say abortion is very important to their vote choose Warnock over Walker two to one.


Gubernatorial race: Kemp leads Abrams

Most Georgia voters have a positive view of the situation in Peach, which is helping incumbent Governor Brian Kemp win re-election.



Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams by 6 points in rematch of 2018 race Among voters overall, there is a wide 30-point gap among voters who feel things are going well in Georgia.


Georgia voters’ positive view of the state contrasts with American voters’ negative view of the country’s state. Nationally, it’s holding the Democrats down.


A majority of Georgia voters feel the state’s economy is doing at least somewhat well, and Kemp leads among those voters.

At the same time, Kemp is also performing well among those most affected by inflation. Georgia voters, who say rising prices have been difficult for them, favor Kemp by a wide margin over Abrams.

Kemp has positive job approval rates overall, with more than half of Georgia voters liking the way he treats them personally.

Kemp has a bit of crossover appeal. About a quarter of his Warnock voters approve of Kemp’s job as governor (than his 1 in 10 Kemp voters who think Warnock is doing a good job in the Senate). also high). And about 1 in 10 Warnock supporters will vote for Kemp.


Kemp’s position on the 2020 election doesn’t seem to hurt him much within his own party when he resisted pressure from then-President Donald Trump to reverse the state’s election results. Two-thirds of voters feel Kemp agrees with Trump in the right amount, vastly preferring Kemp’s approach to election and voting issues to Abrams.


But most Republicans don’t think the 2020 election needs to be investigated. Nearly eight of his 10 Republicans say an investigation into whether Trump and his associates tried to overturn the outcome of his 2020 Georgia presidential election is warranted. I don’t think But the majority of Georgia voters think so.


Other factors in gubernatorial elections

Independent: Most Georgia independents feel things are going pretty well in the state, and this boosts Kemp’s standing in the group. A small majority recognizes his work, and it’s more like how he personally treats himself than how he feels about Abrams. Abrams ran for governor for the first time in 2018 and won support from independent voters.


GOP-based: Nearly all would-be Republicans support Kemp. And while most Republicans in Georgia are happy with candidates from both parties for Senate and Governor, they’re more happy with Kemp than with Walker.


So far, Kemp has not won the endorsement of former President Trump, but he has the support of 9 in 10 state voters in 2020, similar to the level of support Walker has.

abortion: The issue is helping Abrams, but pushing her ahead of Kemp at this point isn’t enough. However, issues such as the economy and crime matter to more voters, and Kemp has a large lead among those groups.

Voting and election issues: Abrams has made the issue of voting and elections the focus of her political campaign, but when asked by Georgia voters who would do a better job on the issue, she runs alongside Kemp.


Confident in voting?

Most Georgia voters are at least somewhat confident that this year’s ballots will be properly recorded and tallied, but Republicans are not, with just over a quarter saying they are “very confident.” answering.

Voting reliability.png

Some have speculated that questions about voter numbers could cause voter turnout to drop, but that doesn’t seem to be happening here. While they don’t have much faith in their state’s vote numbers, they say they will definitely vote this November, as do Republicans who think 2020 saw little to no voter fraud. .

Senate debate

Warnock and Walker are expected to face off in next month’s debate, and most Georgia voters believe it’s at least somewhat important for the candidates to debate. I don’t care about candidate debates.

this is the inversion what i saw in pennsylvaniaRepublicans, who express doubts about the health of Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman, put more weight on the debate than Democrats.


This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted using a statewide representative sample of 1,178 registered voters in Georgia who were interviewed between September 14-19, 2022. Samples were weighted according to gender, age, race, education, and geographic region, based on the U.S. Census current census, and to the 2020 presidential election. The error range is ±4.0 points.

top line Personal and national factors collide in fierce Georgia Senate election — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll

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