Poll – Egypt cuts growth forecasts, currency likely to depreciate further
by Aidan Lewis
Cairo, July 20 (Reuters) – Egypt’s economy is expected to grow slower than originally expected, while inflation is expected to remain high and the Egyptian pound to weaken slightly from previous expectations, according to a Reuters poll.
egypt so far fight The economy has maintained relatively stable growth through the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, but it continues to suffer from persistent foreign exchange shortages, record inflation, and a growing debt burden.
The government secured a $3 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in December while pledging Egypt to move to a flexible exchange rate regime and revitalize the private sector while reducing state influence in the economy.
However, the first review under the program has been postponed as the exchange rate has stabilized around £30.85 to the dollar since March.
A Reuters poll of 13 economists conducted July 10-18 put the median growth forecast for the fiscal year beginning July 1 at 4.2%, down slightly from the previous forecast of 4.5%. of April. According to the latest polls, growth will rebound to 4.8% in 2024/25.
Minister of Finance Mohammed Maith Said Preliminary figures showed real GDP growth of 4.2% in 2022-23, according to a release on Wednesday.
The median pollster said the currency would depreciate to 34.8 Egyptian pounds by the end of the year, just below its previous forecast of 34 pounds.
Economists expect the dollar to fall to £36.95 by the end of 2024 and to £38.90 a year later.
The Egyptian pound has lost nearly 50% of its value against the dollar in a series of sharp devaluations since March 2022 and remains under pressure on the black market.
annual headline inflation accelerated It hit a record 35.7% in June, surging above the all-time high set in 2017 following a significant currency devaluation under previous IMF programs.
The median forecast of the 11 economists surveyed was for headline inflation to fall to 22% by the end of the current fiscal year in June 2024, returning to 13% a year later.
In the last survey in April, economists projected a median headline inflation forecast of 20.9% for fiscal 2023-24 and 9.3% for 2024-25.
Bankers and analysts argue that the expansion of the money supply has been used to offset the growing budget deficit. Fuel supply risk Further inflation and currency pressure.
(Written by Aidan Lewis, Voted by Anant Chandak, Milounee Purohit, Edited by Rashmi Aich)
((Aidan.Lewis@tr.com; +20-1001174410;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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by Aidan Lewis
Cairo, July 20 (Reuters) – Egypt’s economy is expected to grow slower than originally expected, while inflation is expected to remain high and the Egyptian pound to weaken slightly from previous expectations, according to a Reuters poll.
egypt so far fight The economy has maintained relatively stable growth through the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, but it continues to suffer from persistent foreign exchange shortages, record inflation, and a growing debt burden.
The government secured a $3 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in December while pledging Egypt to move to a flexible exchange rate regime and revitalize the private sector while reducing state influence in the economy.
However, the first review under the program has been postponed as the exchange rate has stabilized around £30.85 to the dollar since March.
A Reuters poll of 13 economists conducted July 10-18 put the median growth forecast for the fiscal year beginning July 1 at 4.2%, down slightly from the previous forecast of 4.5%. of April. According to the latest polls, growth will rebound to 4.8% in 2024/25.
Minister of Finance Mohammed Maith Said Preliminary figures showed real GDP growth of 4.2% in 2022-23, according to a release on Wednesday.
The median pollster said the currency would depreciate to 34.8 Egyptian pounds by the end of the year, just below its previous forecast of 34 pounds.
Economists expect the dollar to fall to £36.95 by the end of 2024 and to £38.90 a year later.
The Egyptian pound has lost nearly 50% of its value against the dollar in a series of sharp devaluations since March 2022 and remains under pressure on the black market.
annual headline inflation accelerated It hit a record 35.7% in June, surging above the all-time high set in 2017 following a significant currency devaluation under previous IMF programs.
The median forecast of the 11 economists surveyed was for headline inflation to fall to 22% by the end of the current fiscal year in June 2024, returning to 13% a year later.
In the last survey in April, economists projected a median headline inflation forecast of 20.9% for fiscal 2023-24 and 9.3% for 2024-25.
Bankers and analysts argue that the expansion of the money supply has been used to offset the growing budget deficit. Fuel supply risk Further inflation and currency pressure.
(Written by Aidan Lewis, Voted by Anant Chandak, Milounee Purohit, Edited by Rashmi Aich)
((Aidan.Lewis@tr.com; +20-1001174410;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poll-egypt-growth-forecast-cut-currency-seen-slipping-further Poll – Egypt cuts growth forecasts, currency likely to depreciate further