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Republicans Lead Seats Heading into Final Week, Voters Feel Things Are ‘Out of Hand’ – CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll

Elections are already underway. Millions have voted, and tens of millions more will do so by November 8th. In it, eight of his 10 voters describe the situation in the country today as ‘out of control’ rather than ‘under control’.

This does not bode well for the ruling party. Republicans are now over 20 points ahead of those who say they’re “out of control.”

So where do things stand?

Republicans are now well positioned to win a majority of seats in the House. But voters’ current intentions suggest everything from a sizeable Republican majority to a Democratic majority. Our latest model shows a range of possibilities, which you can explore using the interactive tools below.

In our base model, Republicans lead with 228 seats. This represents a slight change from a few weeks ago, with the party regaining some of the lead they missed over the summer.

That equates to an increase of 15 seats, below the average of parties challenging for a first term as president in recent history. At that level, the majority of lines are just at the lower end of the model’s error bar.

If you’re watching on election night, this scenario may not be immediately clear depending on which specific seats are flipped. (Seven of her 10 of voters expect it will take at least a few days, and in some cases he a week or more, to know all the results.)

So, politically, what does a Democrat-retained House scenario look like? We ran our estimates through a turnout model. The voter turnout model showed much more young voters than the baseline model would suggest, bailing out the Democrats later in the game. This would go against what we’ve seen in recent weeks, both from what young voters told us in the poll and from the early voting results, but it’s not impossible.

It’s like four years ago when voters under 45 and people of color voted in droves. Because they’re a Democratic-leaning group, matching 2018’s record voter turnout would hamper a rise for the Republican Party and change control of the House to about 218 seats. It will be days or weeks before the new balance of power is revealed, with some close battles coming into play.

Then there is the scenario of high Republican voter turnout. This is based on the trends we’ve seen. Specifically, Election Day voter turnout surged among non-college-educated white voters, and there’s avenues for further upswing.

Specifically, we estimate what would happen if this group made up 45% of the voters, with college-educated white and Latino voters making up 3 in 10 and 1 in 10 voters, respectively. As a result, older white voters would win even more Democratic seats, pushing the GOP total to about 238.

What is at issue in this election?

Recent history suggests heavy medium-term losses for the ruling party, as the direction of the economy and country is so widely viewed. But these are not typical times for the country. And when it comes to what’s at stake this year, there are dramatic differences between political parties.

We simply asked what you are more concerned about: Will the United States have a strong economy or a functioning democracy?

The nation is tightly divided. That doesn’t mean people don’t want both. But those who care more about democracy support Democrats, and Republicans mostly support those who care more about a strong economy, echoing the party’s campaign message.


Nervous at polling place?

Even though they lead this contest, we can see that sentiment is being driven by the Republican Party’s ongoing allegations over the voting process beyond 2020.

A majority of Republicans support the idea that private citizens challenge election officials as they process and report vote counts on election night.

Two-thirds also support the idea of ​​citizens patrolling ballot boxes and polling places. Independents and Democrats are at odds.



Republicans seem to thrive on some of the other campaign themes and messages.

Who will win the message war? Which campaign messages are stuck, good or bad?

Depending on who wins, voters think: There are some Republican messages that seem to be entrenched, reflecting their primacy.




After the economy and inflation, crime is the most important issue for voters. Republicans hold her double-digit lead over Democrats in terms of which policies make you safer from crime. This is largely due to how those who vote Republican perceive the Democratic approach to police funding and criminal justice. Just over half of voters believe Democrats will cut police funding.


immigration and borders

The Republican message on immigration resonates with some voters. Voters, three to one, think Democrats put the interests of recent immigrants first, rather than the interests of current U.S. citizens. Majority also believe Democrats will “open the US-Mexico border.” People who hold this view vote Republican.

Interest priority.png


Democrats have raised the issue of threats to democracy, including “election denial.” How important is this?

It speaks to those who already tend to vote Democrat, as it has for a long time.

After all, candidates saying they endorse the events of January 6, 2021, and claiming that President Biden didn’t legitimately win the 2020 presidential election, are likely to be among voters in the midterm elections. Overall negative.

But this is not the case for those who support Republican candidates. Most people don’t care if a candidate supports his Jan. 6 events. 4 out of 10 people are less likely to vote for a candidate who actively criticizes them.

When it comes to “election denial,” most Republican candidates either don’t care or view it positively, with 3 in 10 voting for a Republican candidate, with the Republican Party predicting a Democrat victory in the midterm elections. I expect you to try to cover it up. of parliament.


If the Republicans win, one of the things most voters expect is that the Republican-controlled Congress will try to impeach Mr. Biden. The majority of people who support Republican and Democratic candidates expect the Republican Party to try it.


Republicans have talked a lot in their campaigns about what they were or weren’t taught in schools.

Parents worry about a lot of things at school, so capitalizing on those feelings can have some impact. A majority of parents have expressed concern about school shootings, bullying and the decline in students’ learning ability during the pandemic.

concerns-about school.png

In particular, a majority of Republican parents express concern about classes that discuss issues of sexuality and gender. It’s not just them.


abortion Are Democrats Good Enough?

The issue of abortion has helped keep Democrats in this race, but the percentage of those who think abortion is very important hasn’t changed materially. I will only vote for candidates who agree on this issue.

Voters expect federal action on abortion regardless of which party wins control of Congress. His 84% ​​of voters believe that if Democrats continue to dominate Congress, they will try to pass abortion rights. (Democrats are sure to win voters who want abortion legalized.) Few think the Republicans will try to pass a nationwide anti-abortion bill.

Abort if you win.png

Social security

The Democratic campaign has attacked Republicans on Social Security, but it appears to have had mixed results. Democrats win most of these voters. But most voters don’t think Republicans will cut Social Security.

social security.png

gas fee

A majority of voters believe that a Republican victory will increase energy production in the United States, and they are winning those voters.

After all, voters tend to think gas prices will go up, not down, if Democrats continue to dominate Congress, and they tend to think they’ll go down, not up, if the Republicans win.

Those who blame gas prices for Biden and the Democrats are overwhelmingly voting Republican.


How the Economy Will Affect Elections and Does the Republican Party Need a Plan?

Republicans have focused on issues such as the economy and inflation that are voters’ top priorities.

This is true even though Republicans are seen as supporting the wealthy over the middle class 3 to 1.

Economic policy.png

Majority believes Biden and Democrats should be responsible for the economy. Most people who think so vote Republican and support the Republican Party, regardless of whether they think they have a plan for what the Republican Party will do if it wins control of Congress. Therefore, it may be sufficient to hold the party accountable.

More than half of independents criticize Mr. Biden on issues such as gas prices, crime and immigration, and those who do support Republicans in Congress.

Biden is well on his way to the race — can he motivate Democrats?

His agitation may be reversed. Democratic voters say they support Biden more than they did two weeks ago. And Democratic voters who say they vote for the president are less likely to say they will vote than those who say their vote isn’t about him.


how about trump?

Former President Donald Trump, like his current president, remains dismissive among voters. Republicans are far more likely to say their vote is about Biden than about Trump. Trump is a more positive motivator for those who consider themselves part of the MAGA movement.

Historically, what political observers call “fundamentals,” perceptions of national and economic affairs, keep such elections away from the parties in power. But again, these times are different than the ones that conveyed many of those ideas.

This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted using a nationally representative sample of 2,119 registered voters interviewed October 26-28, 2022. Samples were weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the US Census American Community Survey. to the current census, and the 2020 presidential election. The error range is ±2.4 points. Estimated number of seats in the House of Representatives Model after multilevel regression and stratification Incorporate voter responses to this survey. Each party’s estimated number of seats has an error of ±12 seats.

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-republicans-lead-house-2022-10-30/ Republicans Lead Seats Heading into Final Week, Voters Feel Things Are ‘Out of Hand’ – CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll

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