NFL football has been considered the favorite in American sports betting for a reason; each team only has 17 regular season games to make their way to the playoffs, with the ultimate goal of winning the final Super Bowl championship.
With that said, fewer games mean each one has the team’s future riding on it, and for fans looking to gamble on the games, there are 32 wagers a week that can be placed after figuring in point spreads and over and under bets.
Before you start placing your hard-earned income on the outcome of the 32 teams in the National Foot League, here are the core elements of making NFL picks that you should get familiar with.
Defense goes a long way
Professional football teams with rough and tough defenses can not only keep the scores close but can also win games.
First-class defenses can turn the tides on strong offenses. But let’s not forget that the same can be said when the reverse happens and a team has an incredibly poor defensive effort. Even a respected NFL squad can get run through by the opposing offense if it is superior and get the score thrown out of whack for their opponent in a hurry.
Research the teams
You may not want to hear that football betting has a lot of homework involved, but just because it’s happening on a Sunday, school is still in session.
Make sure that you do your due diligence and research the teams that you are placing bets on. How have they been performing this season? Don’t come to an immediate conclusion that the team with the most wins thus far will automatically beat their current opponent.
Factor in whether the lower-ranked team has a big enough point spread to give them a fair advantage if they aren’t able to put enough points on the scoreboard.
Study the matchup and establish the power rankings to figure out the possible ways the games can turn out. Use point spread information statistics and breaking news about player injuries and suspensions that may keep star talent from hitting the playing field.
Get your most current NFL football information from NFL blogs and news websites dedicated to the teams that you are betting on and betting against.
Take into consideration how the teams that you are putting your financial faith in have performed in previous games.
Use a premium handicapper with a reliable track record and utilize the advice they offer to raise the odds in your favor.
Remaining undefeated rarely happens
NFL picks can become a little too automatic and unthought-out if they depend solely on the fact that a team is on a hot winning streak. It is worth noting that the likelihood of an NFL football team having a flawless season is extremely rare, even with only 17 games to play.
Weigh out the odds of them losing to a team with more losses and see if you could find a loophole that could make you some considerable amount of money.
Imagine the determination of a team coming off of an embarrassing loss the previous week that attacks the field with something proven this week, and look into what it would take for them to reverse the odds against them.
Early point spreads matter
Early point spreads that provide extra points to be tacked onto the final score of a team perceived to be weaker tend to be less when bets are put in on a Sunday night or a Monday morning a week before the game.
If you are looking to tap into the benefits of early point spreads, just know that the odds may get stricter the closer to game day that it gets. Point spreads may change as much as a point or two, which may cut into your odds.
Also, point spreads can be artificially altered to push more bets in the direction of the team that is being under-bet. In a game as violent as football, injuries aren’t an unusual event and can drastically impact your NFL pick.
Don’t get stuck on value
Making moneyline bets are simple, straightforward wagers in sports betting that potentially have two or three possible outcomes. When there are two teams or players listed on a moneyline bet, bettors pick one team or player to win.
You may be tempted to instantly place a bet on the underdog on the moneyline because it can certainly pay off. But remember that there is a reason why this team is considered a long shot in winning that game.
Have logical reasons why you are going with an underdog on the moneyline because the oddsmakers used logic to set that moneyline number, to begin with.
Parlays and teasers are other betting techniques that are used in NFL football betting. Parlays are wagers where you choose two more games on the same ticket for greater profit potential. But all the teams that you choose on that ticket must win.
Teasers in sports gambling are point spreads for two games or more, but both teams need to cover the spread, and the payout is generally less.
NFL teams are typically closely matched in comparison to other professional sports, and it becomes increasingly difficult to predict the final outcome of multiple games. It is recommended that you limit parlays and teasers to between two and five events at a time at the most.
Know more than the trends
When you are looking into how effective a team really is, don’t just look at the final scores and call it a day. It is important to understand the context of how points have been scored by a team recently.
Is it possible the defenses they face fell apart during crucial moments? Are they scoring mostly from running yardage? If so, is the team they will be playing strong at stopping the running game?
Treat this advice as a proper starting point for making wise and informed NFL picks, and remember to not gamble any amount that you aren’t comfortable losing.